Special report of the non -ferrous metal industry: It has passed by the dark moment, and the colors are ushered in a new sequence

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  1. 1.1. Industry fundamentals: Fast recovery of the industry
    In from the perspective of the running conditions of the nationwide non-colored industry, in the first three quarters of 2019 and 2020, the operating income of non-ferrous metal selection industry year-on-year growth rate was -4.6%,– 3.1%, the year-on-year growth rate of profit was -28.8%and 5.9%, respectively; the operating income of non-ferrous metal smelting and pressure-delay industries was 7.2%and 1.5%, respectively. Essence
    Although affected by the epidemic, the non -ferrous metal industry was under great pressure in the first quarter, but with the faster production and re -production, various indicators quickly rebounded. In the first three quarters of 2020, the cumulative growth rate of the country’s non-colored selection industries was -0.4%, and the cumulative growth rate of the added value of the color smelting processing industry was 1.9%year-on-year. In the fourth quarter and 2021, it was expected to accelerate recovery.
    The operating income growth rate of 2020Q3 for non-ferrous metal listed companies was 12.2%, and the growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with 2020Q2; 2020Q3 operating profit growth was -1.6%, a narrowing of 22.1 percentage points from 2020Q2.
    The operating income growth rate of precious metal listed companies was 12.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points from 2020Q2; 2020Q3 operating profit growth rate was 51.7%, an increase of 13.6 percentage points from 2020Q2.
    The operating income growth rate of industrial metal listed companies was 8.6%, and the growth rate increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with 2020Q2; 2020Q3 operating profit growth rate was -21.9%, a decrease of 19 percentage points from 2020Q2.
    The rare metal listed company 2020Q3 operating income growth rate was 26.8%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.4 percentage points from 2020Q2; 2020Q3 operating profit growth was -0.3%, a decrease of 36.8 percentage points from 2020Q2.
    .2. The price of precious metals has fallen and the price of industrial metal prices V -shaped reversal
    In as precious metals, international gold prices rose 23.5%in 10 months by 2020, affected by the global epidemic and weakened US dollar. The price of gold once exceeded $ 2,000/ounce. Since August 2020, the US dollar index has shown a underlying trend, and the price of precious metals has been adjusted to a certain amount, and it is in a high -level consolidation state.
    If industrial metals, the annual industrial metal price shows a V -type reversal trend. With the acceleration of re -production and re -production, most industrial metal prices have been higher than the level of last year. From the perspective of the average price, the average price of copper, aluminum, and nickel was higher than the average annual price last year, and the performance of lead, zinc, and tin was relatively weak.
    It small metals, the weak downstream demand caused the price of molybdenum to fall from a high level and major adjustments; tungsten prices are still at the bottom. The price of cobalt prices showed a range, and the price of lithium and sponge titanium fell significantly.
    It rare earth, the price of light and rare earth fell more than the end of last year. The supply of light rare earth recovers faster, and the price is relatively weak when the demand is weak; the price of medium -heavy rare earth is subject to supply and the price is strong.
    1.3. In the first half of the year, the performance of the color sector: Basic synchronization market
    The color sector of the 10 months before 2020 rose 4.54%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.72%, the basic synchronous market index of the non -ferrous sector; in 29 industries The rise and fall is located in the 17th place, and the industry comparative performance is based. In the color industry, only precious metals and lithium sectors have increased greater, and lead zinc performance is the worst.
    . 2.1. The success of the vaccine and the control of the epidemic promotes the recovery
    The suppression of the economy is about to pass. Although the European and American epidemics occurred in the second wave, and some countries have adopted banning measures again, the medical capacity and response level have improved significantly, and the impact on the economy gradually weakened. In particular, the vaccine research and development is successful. After large -scale vaccination, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually dispersing.
    The domestic economy has entered the recovery stage in advance, and investment, consumption and exports have shown a significant improvement. 2021 is the beginning of the 14th Five -Year Plan. Various plans will be officially promoted. In terms of old and new infrastructure, the state is expected to continue to increase investment. After the dust of the United States election, the large -scale economic stimulus plan will also be launched, and the scale is expected to reach $ 2 trillion. Brexit will also be completed in the first quarter of 2021, and uncertainties will be reduced.
    2.2. Monetary fiscal dual easing and accelerating the pace of recovery
    In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic on the economy, all countries have adopted positive currency and fiscal policies. pace of. Driven by the dual -tube of finance and currency, the economy in the second half of 2020 has signs significantly recovery. In the third quarter of the United States, the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter was as high as 33.1%. China’s GDP quickly rolled up in the second quarter and reached 4.9%in the third quarter. JP Morgan Chase Global Comprehensive Comprehensive PMI has been more than 50%for 4 consecutive months, and the global economy has passed until dark.
    2.3. Low inventory or promoting a new wave of non -ferrous metal prices
    In the context of economic recovery, the reduction of mining capital expenditures and the lower inventory level laid the foundation for triggering a new round of cycle. The non-ferrous metal company listed on A shares continued to decline in 2017-2019. The decrease in capital expenditure means that the new production capacity will slow down in the next 2-3 years. At the same time, industrial metal inventory is at a relatively low level, especially copper and aluminum inventory, which are at the lowest level of the recent years.
    3.1. Copper: Copper mine is tight and beneficial to resource -based enterprises
    The copper price returned to the high water level in the last two years. The last high point appeared in 2018 after several years of supply reform.
    The South American epidemic has led to the slowdown of refined copper ore. In September 2020, the output of Chilean copper fell 0.8%year-on-year to 479,900 tons, and the output from January to September increased by 0.4%to 4.26 million tons. Among them, Codelco’s copper output in September increased by 9.6%to 159,200 tons, and the output of January to September increased by 2.9%; Escondida’s output fell by 6%to 94,100 tons in September, and the year-on-year increase of production by 2.4%from January to September ; The company’s copper output in September increased by 9.4%year-on-year to 53,400 tons, and the output from January to September increased by 23.2%year-on-year.
    The imports of waste copper decreased, further compressing domestic supply. From January to September 2020, China imported waste copper (physical quantity) was 667,000 tons, a significant decrease of 46.1% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the import of waste copper from Southeast Asia was greatly affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia, and the recovery and exports of waste copper recycling and exports in the stack of severe epidemic in the United States and the United States were also greatly affected. In addition, the domestic waste copper policy transformation, which led to domestic waste copper processing or trade related enterprises Imports are relatively cautious, and thereby maintaining a tightening trend in the domestic abandoned copper market.
    downstream demand continues to improve. The field of power is the largest user of copper. In 2019, the national power grid investment was very sluggish, and the year-on-year decreased by 9.6%. In 2020, it improved significantly compared with 2019. The investment growth rate of investment in 9 months in 2020 was -1.8%. It is expected that the whole year is expected to Realize positive growth. The investment and sales of real estate are better than 2019, and they are expected to achieve positive growth. The weakening of downstream demand is mainly the field of air conditioning. In 2021, the fields of power, real estate, and air conditioning are expected to continue to improve.
    3.1.1. Luoyang molybdenum industry: own TFM copper cobalt ore, formation of multi -mineral trade strategy pattern
    The company owns Congo (gold) copper cobalt, domestic molybdenum tungsten, Australian copper gold, Brazilian phosphorus phosphorus phosphorus phosphorus The four major mineral sectors and the third largest metal traders in the world have formed a multi -mineral trade strategy pattern. The performance of performance is strong, and the synergistic effects of trade business and mining sectors are gradually prominent. The company’s Congo (Gold) TFM project may double the future output of copper cobalt ore, copper output is 400,000 tons/ year, and cobalt output reaches 30,000 tons/ year. In addition, the company participated in the Indonesian nickel -cobalt mines wet project, and the nickel metal output reached 15,000 tons /year after completion. Domestic molybdenum, tungsten, Australian copper gold and Brazilian phosphorus business will remain stable, and metal trading business plays a collaborative role in other mines.
    3.1.2. Zijin Mine: Has domestic and overseas high -quality copper mine resources
    The company owns Congo Cama Copper Mine, Serbian TIMOK Copper Gold Mine resource. Camoria Copper Mine, TIMOK copper gold ore, and dragon copper mine projects will expand production. In the next two years, the company’s copper ore output will reach 800,000 tons. At the same time, the company launched 100 million shares for stock incentives. For the three assessment periods, Zijin Mining has four types of assessment indicators. One is that the compound growth rate of net profit must not be less than 25%, and it is not lower than the average value of the same industry or the benchmark. The level of 75 points in the enterprise; the second is that the compound growth rate of the net asset yield is not less than 10%, and it is not lower than the same industry or the level of the company’s 75 -point level; the third is that the asset -liability ratio is not higher than 65 %; Fourth, the performance assessment of the incentive object is above B (inclusive).
    3.1.3. Western mining: Yulong copper ore is about to expand production. It will add 100,000 tons of copper output
    The second largest lead concentrate, second largest zinc concentrate, and fifth largest copper essence Mining producers and mining resources are all in the country. Among them, Qinghai Xitai Mountain lead -zinc ore is one of the largest mining zinc ores in China. Tibetan Yulong Copper Mine is a rare copper mine in China with a rare 6 million tons of copper. Copper metal reserves ranked second in China. The reconstruction and expansion project of the 100,000 tons of copper ore of Yulong Copper Mine has been launched. After the production, it has been treated with 19.89 million tons, with an annual output of 130,000 tons of copper and 8,000 tons of molybdenum. Copper production increased by 100,000 tons compared with 2019.
    3.2. Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively rich
    This electrolytic aluminum spot price is close to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the price returns to the highest water level in the last three years.
    The cost of electrolytic aluminum may continue to maintain the low. Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity is oversupply, and the price performance is sluggish. The global aluminum production capacity continued to expand in 2020, of which about 8.5 million tons in China, an increase of about 3 million tons overseas. Domestic alumina prices operated low, which did not constitute a squeeze of electrolytic aluminum profits. At present, the spot price of electrolytic aluminum is more than 15,000 yuan/ton. The overall profitability of the industry is better. For companies with lower costs, the profit is relatively large.
    This capacity has ceilings, while inventory is at a lower level. According to statistics from Aladdin, the total ceiling of my country’s electrolytic aluminum industry is about 45 million tons. As of the end of August this year, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4.2156 million tons. It is expected to increase the production capacity of 3.163 million tons in 2021. In the future, new capacity will not be added in the future. In the second half of 2020, the inventory is faster. At present, the electrolytic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low water level, providing conditions for firm prices.
    The demand continues to improve, and the lightweight of the car has become a new growth point. At the end of October, the growth rate of domestic fixed asset investment rolled up, the growth rate of real estate investment reached 6.3%, and the real estate sales area returned to the same period last year. The decline in car sales has narrowed significantly. Since May 2020, the year -on -year growth rate of passenger car sales has remained above 10%. With the improvement of energy conservation and emission reduction requirements and the rapid development of Xin Nengyuan Automobile, the pace of lightweight automobiles has accelerated, and the aluminum volume of automobiles will be further increased to become a new growth point for aluminum consumption. At the same time, the acceleration of new domestic infrastructure has also improved the demand for aluminum.
    3.2.1. Shenhuo shares: Yunnan Shenxin thermal electrolytic aluminum output is doubled
    Sthem fire shares form the main business of electrolytic aluminum and coal. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity indicator is 1.7 million tons, ranking sixth in the country, of which Xinjiang Shenhuo 800,000 tons and Yunnan Shenhuo 450,000 tons have been put into operation. Yunnan Shenhuo will continue to expand 450,000 tons. The company is one of the major producers of smoke -free coal in my country. The company’s coal -controlled coal has a reserves of 1.860 billion tons, the reserves can be 896 million tons, and the current annual output is 6 million tons. Essence After several years of impairment of asset impairment, the quality of assets has been greatly improved.
    3.2.2. Tianshan Aluminum: Low -cost advantage
    The Tianshan Aluminum has 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum aluminum production capacity, ranking 10th in the country, currently operating capacity of 1.2 million; The tonnage alumina project has realized the self -sufficient alumina for alumina. At present, it is put into production of 800,000 tons. It is planned to expand the production of funds by fixed increase. The company planned 60,000 tons of high -pure aluminum projects and has been put into production by 20,000 tons. The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is all located in Shihezi City, Xinjiang. It is equipped with a self -reserved power plant, which can meet 90%of its own power demand. The cost of electricity costs is low, the comprehensive cost of electrolytic aluminum is low, and the market competition is strong.
    3.3. New energy metal: Policies and fundamentals to promote recovery
    The policy will continue to promote a new round of new energy development. The domestic “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)” clearly proposes that “encouraging enterprises to improve key resources such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, platinum, etc.”, and the strategic positioning of new energy metals has been further strengthened. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration officially issued the “Notice on the Application of Fuel Battery Vehicle Demonstration Application”, which is the key core technology industrialization of fuel cell vehicles that meet the qualified urban agglomerations With the demonstration application, a new model of fuel cell vehicles with reasonable layout, focusing on each other, and coordinated promotion is formed. Policies will further promote the healthy development of the hydrogen energy vehicle industry.
    The new energy vehicle industry has accelerated. In the first quarter, the epidemic caused a significant decline in domestic new energy vehicle sales. However, with the control of the epidemic, domestic new energy vehicle sales rebounded rapidly, and the power battery installed capacity resumed high growth. At the same time, benefiting from the increase in subsidy policies, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have emerged, and data from the European Automobile Manufacturing Alliance (AECA) show that September, the sales volume of Nine Kingdoms such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and France continued to rise, and the total registration volume was approximately approximately about the approximately approximately area. 133,000 units, a year -on -year increase of 195%. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were about 777,000 units, an increase of 105%year -on -year. The European Automobile Manufacturing Alliance predicts that throughout the year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to exceed 1.1 million units, becoming the main support for the growth of global new energy vehicle sales.
    3.4. Cobalt: The supply of supply declines cobalt prices
    Cotomy is at a low vibration trend. After the estimated price fell sharply in 2018-2019, the current price is at a low fluctuation.
    The supply decreased significantly. In 2020, Jianeng, the largest cobalt ore supplier, shut down Mutanda mines, reduced 2.5 tons of cobalt output. In the first three quarters of 2020, cobalt production was only 21,600 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 37%; the second largest cobalt supplier Luoyang Luoyang In the first three quarters of the molybdenum, the output of 1.05 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 16.7%. Although some mining companies have increased production, the output of supply giants cannot be offset. Because cobalt prices are still at the bottom, the power of major suppliers to expand production is not great. It is expected that the supply in 2021 is still at a low level.
    The demand for consumer electronics has rebounded, and the demand for new energy batteries has increased high. Affected by the epidemic, consumer electronics demand was weak in 2020. According to IDC statistics, the global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2020 were 353.6 million units, a decrease of 1.3%year -on -year, and the decline was significantly narrowed from the first half of the year. It is estimated that with the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones in 2021, smartphones shipments will return. Affected by the epidemic home office, the PC shipments performed well in 2020, and it is expected to have a certain sustainability in 2021. New energy vehicle batteries are still an important source of increased cobalt. According to statistics from the High Industry Industry Research Institute (GGII), the global new energy vehicle sales in the first three quarters of 2020 were about 1.751 million units, an increase of 11.9%year -on -year; power battery installed capacity; About 77.78GWh, a decrease of 1.7%year -on -year, a significant narrowing from the first half of the year. It is expected that consumption in the field of new energy vehicles will remain high in 2021.
    3.4.1. Huayou cobalt industry: layout of cobalt nickel, the production capacity continues to release
    The company has formed the three major business segments of resources, non -ferrous, and new energy, creating from cobalt nickel resources development, smelting, to lithium battery to lithium battery Deep processing of positive materials, and then to the new energy lithium battery industry ecosystem that is recycled by the recycling of resources. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved a cobalt production of 2.8 tons ( 16.2%), 1.3 tons (2.6%) of the three -yuan front -drive body, and 7.1 tons (83.7%) of copper products. The production capacity was further released. The company plans to raise 6 billion yuan to build an annual output of 45,000 tons of nickel metal high -ice nickel projects and an annual output of 50,000 tons of high -nickel -type power battery. The production capacity of the front -drive body will increase.
    3.4.2. Han Rui Cobalt: Cut into the three yuan front -drives from cobalt products to extend the industrial chain
    The main products of the company include electrolytic copper, electrolytic cobalt, crude cobalt hydroxide, cobalt powder, etc. The company is constantly optimizing the industrial structure, extending to the new energy field, and expanding its products to cobalt middle products and ternary battery materials. The company’s Congo (Gold) Koruwei’s annual output of 20,000 tons of electricity copper production line was officially put into production at the end of April 2020, and it has reached its production. In 2020, the company’s raised funds raised 1.9 billion yuan, and Ganzhou Hanrui was used as the starting point for the company to enter the new energy field. It planned to build 10,000 tons/year metal cobalt new materials and 26,000 tons/year triple front drive projects.
    3.5. Platinum: The demand for the recovery of the automotive industry and the demand for commercialization of hydrogen energy rises
    Af affected by the epidemic, platinum prices in the first quarter of 2020 have fallen sharply, and it has returned to the level before the epidemic.
    The platinum is mainly used in the field of automotive catalysts, while the hydrogen energy battery field is an important growth point in the future. At the same time, China, the European Union, India and other places are providing emission standards, and the demand for platinum is increasing. Due to the high price of gold gold, in early 2020, Platinum’s main supplier Sibane-Jingshui (Sibanye-), Yingying Para Platinum Industry (IMPLATS) and BASF have developed a three-element platinum metal catalyst, which will greatly increase the catalyst. The amount of platinum. China has introduced hydrogen energy development encouragement policies. The road of commercialization of hydrogen energy is accelerating. As an indispensable catalyst in fuel cell piles, the demand for platinum is expected to continue to increase.
    The supply is concentrated in South Africa, and it is expected to have a shortage in 2021. South African platinum supplies account for 75%of the world’s, and the production areas are concentrated in the impact of risk events such as strikes and natural disasters. The report of the World Platinum Industry Association claims that although the quarterly rising rebound of car demand and the continuous strong investment demand for car demand for car demand, the demand for automobile demand has increased the demand for platinum in the third quarter of 2020. Far -of -supply, resulting in a shortage of 22 tons this quarter. At present, the supply shortage in 2020 is slightly greater than 37 tons, and the shortage of 7 tons will occur in 2021 for the first time.
    3.5.1. Guiyan Platinum Industry: The leading domestic platinum -family metal supplier
    Kunming Precious Metal Research Institute has created my country’s platinum metal research undertakings. It is the main knowledge innovation and technological innovation in this field Power is known as the “Platinum Cradle”. The company has a complete precious metal industry chain system, that is, three core business segments of precious metal new materials manufacturing, precious metal resource recycling, and precious metal supply services. Closed -loop solutions have obvious comprehensive advantages in market competition. With the recovery of the automotive industry and the domestic alternative process of catalysts, the company’s sales revenue and operating performance have achieved steadily. In the first three quarters of 2020, revenue increased by 13.66%year -on -year, and net profit after deduction increased by 95.26%year -on -year.
    As of the end of October 2020, the non -ferrous sector PE was 38.1 times, the precious metal PE was 39.1 times, the basic metal was 29.8 times, and the rare metal was 52.3 times. The global economy was stagnant in the first quarter of 2020, and the prices of non -ferrous metals, especially industrial metals, were hit, and prices fell into freezing points. Driven by the monetary policy, the price of industrial metals rebounded quickly to a high level in the past few years. The non -ferrous metal has passed until the dark moment. In the scene where the mining capital expenditure has slowed down, the production capacity release speed may be slower than the economic recovery. Metal prices will maintain a good situation in 2021.
    (1) The stimulus policies of various countries do not reach expectations or exit prematurely.
    (2) The global epidemic is repeated, resulting in weak metal demand.

    (The report view belongs to the original author, for reference only. Source/Author: Zhongyuan Securities)
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